CATL’s evolving strategy and the lithium market

More than a year after CATL’s Jianxiawo lepidolite mine was shut on the expiry of its mining licence, speculation over its restart has contributed to abrupt swings in lithium futures pricing. How does CATL view the evolution of the Li market and what are the implications?

Record cracks: Global Refining and the Supply-Side Bottleneck

Middle distillate cracks are at their highest on record and unlike previous cycles (e.g. following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine), net refining capacity additions are set to slow significantly from next year. What have been the key drivers for the tightness in the refining industry? Will the capacity bottleneck ease anytime soon?

LGES doubles down on Lopal LFP CAM supply: background and implications

The LGES/Lopal deal highlights the urgency with which US LiB makers feel they must respond to fast rising demand for ESS cells. They cannot wait for fully ex-China LFP CAM supply chains to be built; instead, they must work with existing options and try to adapt these in the short-to-medium term to stay compliant with sourcing rules.

The missing middle: US LFP CAM capacity

While Section 45X manufacturing credits and surging data-centre storage demand have successfully catalysed U.S. LFP cell manufacturing, the domestic supply chain faces a critical midstream failure: the United States produces virtually no domestic cathode active material (CAM), leaving gigafactories almost entirely dependent on a Chinese market that commands roughly 98% of global LFP output.

Hormuz and the Middle East’s new crude trading realities

The resumption of tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran has eroded market confidence in a normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). Geopolitically, the biggest question remains the most consequential: who will gain control over the future of the Strait of Hormuz?