Record cracks: Global Refining and the Supply-Side Bottleneck

Middle distillate cracks are at their highest on record and unlike previous cycles (e.g. following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine), net refining capacity additions are set to slow significantly from next year. What have been the key drivers for the tightness in the refining industry? Will the capacity bottleneck ease anytime soon?

Hormuz and the Middle East’s new crude trading realities

The resumption of tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran has eroded market confidence in a normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). Geopolitically, the biggest question remains the most consequential: who will gain control over the future of the Strait of Hormuz?